Reroll damage - the math behind it

If you had been reading the internet these past few days you might have seen that Cygnar is getting some new sweet models, because we deserve it.

In particular, one unit that called my attention was the Trencher Longguners, without going into too much detail, they can reroll damage rolls. This is a primer, and I asked myself: "How does this change the math of damage rolls?"

 Always reroll this!

Currently, we have ways of rerolling to hit, but that math is different, if your odds of hitting something are p, the odds of hitting it when you can reroll are p + (1-p) * p, meaning that you either hit first, or you miss and you hit it on your reroll.

However, damage is different, you roll damage and you have to decide if you want to keep said roll or you get greedy and try to do more. In this article I will address the math behind this: "Should I reroll or should I keep it?" Intuitively, I think you should reroll everything that is under average.

This is an easy question when you are shooting a single wound model because it will become binary again: "Did I kill it?" if the answer is yes, do not reroll it, if the answer is not, reroll. But it becomes more complicated when you try to maximize against multiple box models.

For instance, a person could be greedy and say: "I will reroll anything that is not box cars!!", well let's see how this changes the math: the odds of rolling 2 sixes is 1/36, the odds of not rolling 2 sixes is 35/36, so you just doubled the odds of rolling box cars! (or almost: 1/36+35/36*1/36 = .055 instead of 0.28 ). However, does this maximize the damage that you can do?

The algorithm to estimate the expected roll when you get to reroll is easy, first you need to decide what's the magical number that will force you to reroll, let's call that R. If R=12, means that you reroll everything but 12s, or if R=9 it means that you reroll anything that is 8 or lower.

Therefore, the probability of rolling x, if x is higher or equal than R, means that you either rolled x on the first roll, or you rolled less than R and then you rolled x on the second try:

 

now, if x is lower than R, it is not possible that the roll is the result of the first roll, which means that:

with this new function, we can compute the expected damage of this roll: 

Table with the expected damage when you get to reroll if the first roll is under R

R	Expected Damage
3	7.138889
4	7.361111
5	7.611111
6	7.833333
7	7.972222
8	7.972222
9	7.833333
10	7.611111
11	7.361111
12	7.138889

  

It is clear that if you only reroll when you roll less than a 3, the expected damage does not increase that much, however if you are only rerolling when you roll anything less than box cars it has the same effect, because you are keeping the same number of combinations (only 1 out of 36).

From this table, the optimal number seems to be either 7 or 8, meaning that it is the same to reroll anything that is under 7 or 8 and it is the optimal value.

My question to you is: if you have rolled a 7 (meaning that you have less than 8) are you going to risk it? I do not think so...

Kraye1.3 vs Nemo3, Scenario: SR 2017 - Breakdown

1. Lists

I played some Kraye before he was on CID it was powerful, but it didn't do enough to move me away from the Haley trifecta, however now that is on CID I wanted to try this:

Cygnar Army - 75 / 75 points
[Theme] Heavy Metal


(Kraye 1) Captain Jeremiah Kraye (CID) [+28]
 - Cyclone [13]
 - Hammersmith [12]
 - Ironclad [12]
 - Ironclad [12]
 - Ironclad [12]
 - Ironclad [12]
 - Ironclad [12]
 - Squire [0(5)]
Archduke Alain Runewood, Lord of Fharin [0(4)]
Captain Arlan Strangewayes [0(4)]
Trencher Warcaster Lieutenant (CID) [0(4)]
 - Charger [9]
 - Charger [9]

The idea behind the list is easy, all the Ironclads threaten 5 (SPD) +3 (charge) +3 (full tilt) +2 (feat) +1 (reach) = 14", they will charge for free in feat turn and they will always have boosted charge attacks. The boosted charge makes it easier to knockdown things, but just being able to give up the pow 14 so that you can reposition back without a free strike is also great.

However, the feat requires a range attack to hit first, so that is why the trencher junior is there, fire group makes the Chargers be able to tag something within 20".

The Hammersmith is slightly situational, it has a higher output than the Ironclad, 2 pow 17s vs 1 pow 18 and a pow 14, and being able to beat back, slam, and follow up, means that you can go at least 3 inches further, so technically you can come out and attack a warcaster that was felt safe 17" away from it: you charge for free on feat turn, you beat back twice, you slam at least 1 and follow up.

The Cyclone is another source source for feat shots, plus it is good at guerrilla tactics: walk 5", shoot 12", and go back 5". Is not the perfect warjack for the job, but fully loaded can unload at least 3 boosted pow 12s and 1 unboosted (with average dice).

My opponent is playing Nemo3, we decided to try the CID changes and have Laddermore with veteran leader:

Cygnar Army - 75 / 75 points
[Theme] Storm Division

(Nemo 3) Artificer General Nemo [+25]
 - Firefly [8]
 - Hurricane [39]
 - Squire [0(5)]
Journeyman Warcaster [4]
 - Charger [9]
Major Katherine Laddermore [8]
Stormblade Captain [0(5)]
Storm Lances (min) [12]
Storm Lances (max) [20]

My opponent makes a mistake and plays with two full unit of lances, but we do not catch that mistake and we play the game anyways.

2. Pre-game thoughts

1. My list threatens a lot, but I need to get at least 3 Ironclads onto the Hurricane to kill it.
2. Countermeasure will help my Ironclads survive charges.
3. Lock the target is a dead spell, since it will never damage the Hurricane.

3. Rounds:

Turn 0:
I win the roll to go first and I take it, the table is not symmetrical so I see that one zone will be obstructed and if my opponent doesn't go for it I will be able to score easily.

Turn 1:

I trample all of my jacks forward and repo even more far up the field. Admonition goes up on an Ironclad in the middle of the board and Countermeasure goes on the Ironclad that is closer to the stormlances.

My opponent runs forward without triggering Admonition, he shoots my Ironclads with his Hurricane to knock them down. I smile, I just remembered that I have jumpstart.

Bottom of 1.

Turn 2:

I mistakenly think is feat turn, I measure 14 from two Ironclads and I can get them into the Hurricane, locking him out from the middle zone. However I get greedy and also allocate 1 to the Hammersmith, plus cast jumpstart, now I cannot cast Full Titlt so my feat is lost.

The Hammersmith kills a Firefly with no problem and forgets to reposition, the Cyclone is up to do some damage as to trigger the feat, but I also forget to reposition him.

The Chargers kill 3 storm lances and a charging ironclad fails to kill another one.

Top of 2. So many mistakes...

My opponent feats. Then, my opponent charges the Hammersmiththe hurricane, my mistake since it should have reposition too far from it to charge me. He kills the Hammersmith and cripples the Cyclone, he shouldn't have gotten either one.

 

Countermeasure keeps my other Ironclad safe, since he can only charge with 2 or 3 and doesn't get all the assault shots.

At the end of his turn, I score 2 points, one on the zone with Runewood, one on the middle zone since the charge stopped outside of the zone.

Score is 2-0.

Turn 3:

I will be at 4 points at the end of my turn, I cast Full Tilt and charge 2 Ironclads onto the Hurricane, making it so he cannot walk the Hurricane onto the zone. I cripple one side.

I also see another angle here, I can run an Ironclad within charging distance (12") of Nemo, if my opponent doesn't move the Hurricane away from the center zone I will charge Nemo, tremor, and kill him. If he moves the Hurricane, he only has storm lances to contest the middle zone and I should be able to kill them.

Top of 3. I might still be able to save this one.

Score is 4-0.

Plan goes as designed, he moves the Hurricane away from the zone. The stormlances kill my Charges from the right zone and reposition onto the middle zone.

Score is 5-1.

Turn 4:

I only have to charge the two lances with Kraye, kill them (thanks to a pow 13 brutal damage) and reposition onto his zone so that I contest his zone and score on mine.

Score is 7 to 1, I am up by 6 and I win.

4. Post-game:

Kraye is good, the feat is better against non-colosal lists, things like Amon, where 1 focus or 2 focus per jack will cripple your opponent a lot, and allow you to get a second alpha.

Thexus1 vs Doomshaper2, Scenario SR 2017: Standoff

1. Lists

My list is the default Thexus build with all the drudges you can put on the list, I believe that a 2" push plus a TK plus sprays that ignore everything will be good in SR 2017, therefore after playing Cygnar for 3 years I decided to give this some table time:

Mercenary Army - 75 / 75 points

[Theme] Operating Theater

(Thexus 1) Exulon Thexus [+29]

 - Wrecker [14]

 - Wrecker [14]

Cephalyx Agitator [3]

Cephalyx Agitator [3]

Cephalyx Mind Bender & Drudges (max) [11]

Cephalyx Mind Bender & Drudges (max) [11]

Cephalyx Mind Bender & Drudges (max) [11]

Cephalyx Mind Slaver & Drudges (max) [12]

Cephalyx Mind Slaver & Drudges (max) [12]

Cephalyx Mind Slaver & Drudges (max) [12]

Cephalyx Overlords [0(8)]

Cephalyx Overlords [0(8)]

My opponent is playing Doomie2, I play against trolls once every other month, so I do not know too much about them in MK3, and this is going to be bad:

Trollbloods Army - 75 / 75 points

[Theme] The Power of Dhunia

(Doomshaper 2) Hoarluk Doomshaper, Rage of Dhunia [+27]

 - Earthborn Dire Troll [15]

 - Mountain King [36]

 - Mulg the Ancient [19]

 - Storm Troll [9]

 - Troll Axer [10]

 - Trollkin Runebearer [0(4)]

Northkin Shaman [0(4)]

Northkin Shaman [0(4)]

Stone Scribe Chronicler [4]

Krielstone Bearer & Stone Scribes (max) [9]

2. Pre-game thoughts

• I have no idea what the list in front of me can do, crap.
• I need to kill the mountain king as soon as I can, 
• Adrenal flood is going to be really important for killing the troll heavies, I can have the drudges kill heavies and then have the heavies finish the job.

3. Rounds:

Turn 0:

I get to go second, and the board is mostly symmetrical. I choose the side with the less amount rough terrain.

I always deploy this list the same way: unit of mind bender, unit of mind slaver, unit of mind bender, unit of mind slaves and unit of mind bender.

This way any unit of mind slaves can get 6 adrenal floods easily, also when a unit ambushes I can move a unit of mind benders on the side of the table to adrenal flood them and threaten 15" from the side of the board (3" for deployment, 5+3 for charge and 4" for adrenal flood ).

Turn 1:

His stuff runs forward, my stuff runs forward. I try to not leave a lane for his heavies to overtake by killing my drudges but I also want to make it hard for Mulg to run into my face.

End of my turn 1, Everything has run forward. 

Turn 2:

He tramples the earthborn forward, puts his animus up (no pushes) and kills one drudge. His mountain king comes forward and then sprays my agitators, I lose one due to bad placement. His storm troll kills another drudge.

End of his turn 2. 

There is nothing to get with my feat, I need to TK the earthborn out of the stone and far from the obstruction so I can kill it with adrenal flooded drudges. I choose to ambush a unit on the left side since I feel that I can hold that zone for a while.

I realize I made a huge mistake on my deployment, I should have had the mind slaver unit in front of the mountain king with mind benders to both sides, however, it only has one unit of mind benders within range. This means I will only get 1 wrecker and 3 adrenal flooded drudges, this is really dicey: 3 pow 16 at dice - 5 should be 18 damage, and then the wrecker with a free charge should be 29 points of damage, which means that I only do 47 points and I leave it 9 or so. If I had gotten three more drudges it would be overkilled by 9. 

I also forget that I could have charged through my objective with the other Wrecker. If I had done so I would have killed the mountain king and gone harder for my right zone, getting away from Mulg.

I go about with the best plan I can come up with and kill the Earthborn and leave the mountain king on 10 boxes. This is bad!

End of my turn 2.

Turn 3:

Mulg has a line to Thexus, I was expecting it to charge far, but not 14" far (I should have premeasured but I wanted Thexus within 10" of the mountain king), plus overtake for an extra inch and he only needs to overtake one time. My opponent goes for it and kills me with his last attack.

The Cephalyx lose!

4. Post-game:

1. If I had chosen the other side, I could have put Thexus behind a forest, but I don't think it would have mattered too much.
2. The huge mistake was going second and not putting the unit of mind benders close to the unit of mind slaves close to the mountain king. 
3. Forgetting I can charge through my objective to kill the mountain king was a huge thing too. 
4. Leaving an overtake lane to Thexus was bad, but as my opponent said: "If I don't have that, I just kill both your wreckers", which is true. 
5. It is great that Thexus can sack sprays!
6. I am amazed at how much armor cracking we can do with only the drudges, the wreckers can be kept back and by the time they go up, nothing important should be hard to kill at that point.

Caine3 vs Aikos2, Scenario: SR 2017 - Breakdown

1. Lists

Since Caine3 is going to be in ADR, I decided to give him some table time. I am playing a version of Caine3 with a lot of Chargers (8), I copied said list from Keith Christianson, a co-host of Muse on Minis, who played it this past weekend at MoMCon.

Cygnar Army - 75 / 75 points

[Theme] Heavy Metal

(Caine 3) Caine's Hellslingers [+20]

 - Ace [12]

 - Charger [9]

 - Charger [9]

 - Charger [9]

 - Charger [9]

 - Charger [9]

 - Charger [9]

 - Charger [9]

 - Charger [9]

Captain Arlan Strangewayes [0(4)]

Journeyman Warcaster [0(4)]

 - Hunter [11]

My opponent is playing his Aiakos2 list, I do not think is an unwinnable matchup, but it is not great for him. His warjacks having hyperaggressive means that I can only get one or two shots before they are on my face.

Cryx Army - 75 / 75 points
[Theme] Infernal Machines

(Aiakos 2) Captain Aiakos [+29]
 - Deathjack [23]
 - Defiler [8]
 - Defiler [8]
 - Reaper [13]
 - Reaper [13]
 - Seether [13]
 - The Withershadow Combine [9]
Warwitch Siren [4]
Warwitch Siren [4]
Bile Thralls (min) [9]

2. Pre-game thoughts

1. This is a new list and this will be my second game with it, is mostly about learning the strengths and weaknesses. 
2. Going first would be great since I would get to run all my stuff forward so that my opponent would have to choose between coming to the shooting gallery or giving me the scenario.
3. Going second would not be bad either: having access to mage sight means that I can keep most of my force safe behind forests and the wall will save me from being pulled.
4. The scenario is going to be complicated, I do not want to engage in melee but I also don't want to give it up, I need to attrition as much as I can before the scenario is relevant.

3. Rounds:

Turn 0:
I win the roll to go first and I take it, I will run everything forward and force him to enter my ranges.

My opponent chooses a side with a wall and forests, the forests are going to help me more than him.

Turn 1:

I run all my chargers forward, He can always drag two of my jacks, but losing a Charger on the right side would not be bad if it means that the other 4 can kill two heavies.
I feel that the Hunter is not as important as a Charger since the Hunter will not benefit from feat and the Charger does more damage anyways. Therefore it runs forward to be the target of his attacks.
I do not know where to put Arcane Shield, probably should have gone on Ace, but I feel that Ryan and Watts are more important right now and it goes on them. Ace Infiltrates so that he and Caine have stealth.

Top of 1, Everything runs forward.

My opponent considers what to do, he feels that there is not one safe spot on his side of the board, other than 18 inches away from my chargers, which would mean giving me most of the scenario. He runs Aiakos to the side with only 3 chargers and tries to block LOS with a medium base. Aiakos is camping 4.

He drags the Hunter and easily kills it.

He also runs a witch (which I have painted for him) behind a wall to threaten my right chargers.

Bottom of 1, He has dragged a Hunter and killed it, but Aikos is in a bad spot.

Turn 2:

Even though he has blocked LOS with a medium base, thanks to Mage Sight I can see through the forest. This turn I will feat and I will get 6 boosted rat 9s and pow 15s onto Aiakos, who is a 15/15 with 17ish boxes.

I get 1 from the Squire, I allocate 3 to the left chargers, I allocate one to another Charger.

My first activation is to have Arlan allocate to one more Charger, in case things go wrong, and the assassination plan begins.

I feat, Caine casts Mage Sight to clip Aiakos and also gets to kill two grunts to get synergy up to 1, Watts can kill another one but Ryan is far from everything, Synergy is up to 2.

That's ok, Ace can aim to rat 11 and boost a shot at the witch behind the wall, def 17, he hits, kills her and get synergy to 3.

Leftmost Charger aims, rat 11, hits Aiakos twice and does some damage, the t second charger goes, walks, rat 9 and successfully hits Aiakos twice, he is out of focus and I still have a Charger left. It activates and finishes the job on the first shot.

Victory for Cygnar!

4. Post-game:

The matchup was bad for my opponent, if he had kept Aiakos back, I can kill most of his troops and probably 3ish of his jacks, at that point he is also down on attrition.

I would have liked to play the game for attrition, see how much can this list deal with, I guess it will have to be on my next game.

Sloan1 vs Krueger1, Scenario: SR 2017 - Breakdown

1. Lists

I am playing a version of Sloan that my opponent wanted to practice against. I usually do not have those many hunters and have Cyclone's instead, their pow 12s are better at killing infantry, their armor is better at surviving infantry and they bring more shots per point. However, they are less focus efficient and it seems to be less popular in the current meta.

Cygnar Army - 75 / 75 points

[Theme] Heavy Metal

(Sloan 1) Captain Kara Sloan [+28]
 - Hunter [11]
 - Hunter [11]
 - Hunter [11]
 - Hunter [11]
 - Hunter [11]
 - Stormwall [39]
 - Squire [0(5)]
Archduke Alain Runewood, Lord of Fharin [0(4)]
Captain Arlan Strangewayes [0(4)]
Journeyman Warcaster [0(4)]
 - Charger [9]

My opponent is playing his #KruegerHill list, which is really annoying since the Tharn will be DEF 16 with tough no knockdown on the approach, with granted vengeance.

Circle Army - 75 / 75 points

[Theme] The Devourer's Host

(Krueger 1) Krueger the Stormwrath [+28]

 - Ghetorix [21]

 - Gorax Rager [7]

Bloodweaver Night Witch [4]

Bloodweaver Night Witch [4]

Tharn Ravager Shaman [0(5)]

Tharn Ravager Shaman [0(5)]

Tharn Ravager White Mane [0(5)]

Death Wolves [9]

Tharn Bloodweavers [8]

Tharn Bloodweavers [8]

Tharn Ravagers (max) [16]

 - Tharn Ravager Chieftain [5]

Tharn Ravagers (max) [16]

 - Tharn Ravager Chieftain [5]

Just to keep track of the models, damage boxes and so on: 17 Tharn Ravagers and 14 Bloodweavers.

2. Pre-game thoughts

• This opponent in particular and I have played over 30 games since Mk 3 came out, and my win ratio is really low. This usually makes me play really cagey but it has improved how I play against Circle since I have been defeated in so many different ways...
• I need to keep my Stormwall far from Ghetorix and I have to kill as many ravagers as I can from 16 inches away, since they actually threaten 14" (3" repo, 6" movement, 3" charge, 2" reach = 14" ) and they will kill hunters like nobody's business.
• I also need to take care of the blood weavers, since they will demolish my hunters.
• I will not focus on scenario until I have taken care of enough Tharn.

Scenario #4, Breakdown.

3. Rounds:

Turn 0:
I lose the roll and I choose my side. In hindsight, I might have chosen the wrong side, there is a forest where he can hide Ghetorix and still charge the Stormwall. However, this never comes into play and by choosing my side I deny a trench for my opponent to hide Krueger on (again, not important since killing Krueger was never an option anyway).

Turn 1:

My opponent runs all of his stuff forward, he does block LOS to the Chieftains and to the Shamans. The Death Wolves run up on a hill and Ghetorix and Krueger are hiding behind a house. The Bloodweavers are flanking really hard.

Krueger casts Gale Winds as expected, so the Ravagers are defense 16 and the Bloodweavers are defense 17.

Top of 1, some shooting is about to happen...

My turn, how many def 16's can I miss? How many tough rolls can my opponent pass?

Sloan kicks the Squire, casts Fire Group and Guided Fire, and puts Refuge on herself. She goes up and shoots a Ravager, kills it but my opponent toughs. I refuge back to be 15" away from the Ravager and out of kill box.

The Hunters and Stormwall follow up next, some aim some do not, either way, nothing dies! I roll a lot of 1,2,1s and my opponent toughs the rest. I place a couple of covering templates to stop the Bloodweavers from massively charging into my hunters.

At this point, I expected to have hit at least 6 Tharn ( 75% of my shoots since I need boosted 7s when aiming and boosted 9s when not) and killed at least 3. But the count is not in my favor: 0 Tharns were killed while playing this turn.

Turn 2:

My opponent charges a unit of Ravagers into one of my hunters and runs them to stop me from putting the Stormwall into the center zone. He sends the rest of the Tharns to contest both circle zones.

Krueger casts Gale Winds again so the Ravagers on the open are defense 16, defense 18 in the forest and the Bloodweavers are defense 17, Ghetorix defense with a building is to much too even consider.

Can I kill enough to Ravagers to make a difference?

This will be my feat turn, I need to clear as many Ravagers as I can while keeping the Stormwall far from the Ghetorix. 

Runewood runs into a zone as to not give away too many free points

Sloan feats and starts putting some shots into Ravagers, Hunters follow up, and Stormwall finishes the firing lane. My dice are slightly more in my favor this turn, and when the dust settles I've killed 6 Ravagers.

I expected this number to be a little bit higher: I took 8 hunter shots at rat 9 (aiming), 2 Sloan shots at rat 10 (aiming), 3 pow 14s rat 6s from the stormwall and 6 pow 10s from the Stormwall.

I expected to have killed 8 or so, the problem is that I have not cleared enough Tharns from the center zone, so now my opponent will be able to put his Ghetorix on the other side of the forest, score and threaten the Stormwall if he goes into the zone.

I have made a huge mistake: I have not contested the left zone, instead, I tried to use the Stormwall's pot to kill two Tharn, but it didn't work and I gave up one point.

Bottom of 2, the dust has settled and not enough Tharns are dead.

Turn 3:

My opponent charges my three hunters on the left with Bloodweavers, doing some damage but mostly stopping their guns. On the right, he charges them into Runewood, killing him, and engaging the Hunter, The Ravagers from the center zone charge the Stormwall, not doing too much damage but locking him out of the center zone.

Ghetorix walks behind the forest as expected and toes the zone. As per usual, Krueger casts Gale Winds and stays safe.

My opponent goes to 4-0, at this point I've lost the game. I can contest the three zones but he will have no issue cleaning them up again, therefore the game is over.

Cygnar looses

4. Post-game:

The matchup is not that bad when you don't do stupid mistakes:
1 - Roll better, and prioritize targets. I should have gone harder for the center zone so that I could run Stormwall onto that zone, maybe even two.
2 - I should not have given a free point to my opponent, the fact that you have to win by 6 is a bigger illusion that you think, scoring is really live, it happens, stop it as early and often as you can.
3 - Feat a turn sooner, with Sloan if you have the targets and no shots are going to get wasted, you should just feat.
4 - If you feat late, as I did, the Stormwall shooting might be a trap, especially in SR 2107 since the Stormwall can contest so many zones and is hard to remove.

5 - I should have chosen the other side, give the trench to Krueger and have no assassination angle, but have a better scenario presence.

Haley2 vs Fyanna2, Scenario: Take and Hold

1. Lists

My list is a copy from courage's of caspia's previous Haley2 version, he called it "" but for my is the "Three amigos!" because it has 3 Stormclads on it:

Cygnar Army - 75 / 75 points

[Theme] Heavy Metal

(Haley 2) Major Victoria Haley [+25]

 - Avenger [17]

 - Firefly [8]

 - Stormclad [18]

 - Stormclad [18]

 - Thorn [13]

 - Squire [0(5)]

Captain Arlan Strangewayes [0(4)]

Journeyman Warcaster [0(4)]

 - Firefly [8]

Lieutenant Allison Jakes [0(4)]

 - Stormclad [18]

My opponent is playing Fyanna2, an interesting version of her in Oracle's:

Legion Army - 75 / 75 points

[Theme] Oracles of Annihilation

(Fyanna 2) Fyanna, Torment of Everblight [+28]

 - Angelius [17]

 - Angelius [17]

 - Naga Nightlurker [8]

 - Neraph [12]

 - Neraph [12]

 - Seraph [14]

Blighted Nyss Shepherd [1]

Blighted Nyss Shepherd [1]

Blighted Nyss Sorceress & Hellion [0(6)]

Blighted Nyss Sorceress & Hellion [0(6)]

Spell Martyr [1]

Spell Martyr [1]

The Forsaken [4]

Blighted Nyss Hex Hunters (max) [15]

 - Bayal, Hound of Everblight [0(6)]

2. Pre-game thoughts

• I am not going to feat until either my opponent feats or until I'm really up on attrition and I can guarantee scoring two points. 
• My avenger is not going to be worth much because is slow and I cannot knock anything down, plus the hex hunters will more likely be immune to blast anyways. Therefore, my avenger will be the trading piece. 

3. Rounds:

I apologize, I do not have pictures until turn 3, but you can see a picture of the end of turn 3 to understand what I mean when I write left/right.

End of my turn 3

Turn 0:
I win the roll and I choose to go first, Fyanna2 is so fast that I really need to get all my heavies up the field as far as I can.

My opponent chooses the side, I realize that I have a trench where Haley can be outside of killbox (by mm) and safe from shots or gallows, so I plan on sticking her there and not move her until is time to go get the flag.

I deploy symmetrically:, two Stormclads on the right side in front of my flag, and the avenger and the other Stormclad in front of my opponent flag. Firefelies deploy in the middle so they can run to either flank so that I can have them shoot at the hex hunters ASAP.

The opponent also deploys symmetrically: one Angel, one Neraph, a Sorceress, a Spell martyr and a Shepherd at each side. The rest is in the center. The hex hunters AD in the middle of the board

Turn 1:

My plan starts on track: I run all the heavies up, activate Haley and TK all of them 2 inches forward. My fireflies run so I can shoot at the hex hunters next turn.

I have Arcane Shield on Thorn, since he will be crucial at killing sorcerers and spell martyrs, the only way I can decide engagement is if my opponent cannot gallows me, and the only way I can survive charges is if my opponent has to pay for them.

My opponent takes a bunch of attacks onto my heavies with the hex hunters, he does 1 or 2 points of damage per heavy, but his goal is to stop me from running. 

Turn 2:

I send my fireflies after hex hunters and they kill 6 of them, the other. I then put Thorn to work, he runs within 12 inches of a sorceress. Haley needs 6s to hit and I miss the first one, even with the reroll from the Squire, two more and she is empty but the sorceress is dead, she walks out of killbox.

Thorn reaction drives behind and unbuffed Stormclad. If my opponent wants to charge the Stormclad with the Angelius with Admonition, I'll take it, I will kill it by TKing it and hitting it with the sidekick stromclad. My Stormclads kill 2 more hex hunters and a spell martyr. I send the Avenger in to be in range of a Neraph and he shoots one more of the hex hunters of the table.

How much of mine will survive my opponent turn 2?

As expected my oppoonent sends the two remaining hex hunters to beat on the Avenger, and then a Neraph with Fury to finish the job. He moves Fyanna out of kill box.

Turn 3:

My goal is to start traiding, so I send Thorn within 8 inches of it and TK it towards me turning him around. I put Arcane Shield on a Stormclad, I TK it forward and give it Temporal Acceleration, it walks forward and overkill the Neraph. Before doing so, I have my fireflies kill the remaining hex hunters and put some shots on the Neraph as to get damage on the Forsaken.

My right side is clear enough, my opponent only has an Angelius but no way of casting gallows, so I retreat from it and move those two heavies to the other flank. 

A question for readers, with my opponent having access to wraithbane, is it even worth it to put Arcane Shield on the forward Stormclad? I do it to mess with his order of activations...

End of my turn 3, the Arcane shielded Stormclad on the left just killed a Neraph but will get charged either by a Neraph or by an Angelius. My right side is as far from that Angelius as possible. 

My opponent does as expected, activates the Naga, put wraithbane on the Neraph, activate Fyanna cast Fury on the Neraph and charge the Stormclad. It doesn't finish it killing it so now I have a fairly broken Stormclad that is contesting his flag. But the Naga cannot sprint away.

My opponent has the other sorceress run within 4 of his flag so that at least is contesting.

Turn 4:
Rinse and repeat, we need to kill that Naga and the Sorceress, I have given up on my flag, so all my heavies are on the other side. My fireflies go first and boost to hit and damage on her and kill her. I TK the engaged Neraph with Fury: DEF: 14+4-1=17, I need boosted 9s with a reroll, it goes off on the first try, after that, I temporal accelerate and TK the Sidekicked Stormclad, the Stormclad kills the Neraph, and then jakes use energizer to bring it back to "safety".

I might win this, I'm up on attrition but my clock is 7-10 min lower than my opponent, that might be a huge problem.

End of my turn 4, I just killed the other Neraph and gave up on my right side. 

My opponent sends the Angelius to kill a Firefly and beats on the Stormclad with Sidekick, without wraithbane is hard to do so and only kills the Firefly. The Angelius with Admonition runs to the middle of the board, and passes turn.

Turn 5:

Is turn 5 and NOBODY HAS FEATED YET!

I don't see him measure it but my opponent placement of the Angelius with Admonition is my definition of pro-placement, he is within 6 inches of my flag and his flag, so if I move to contest either, he might move to contest.

However, there is one side on both flags that are safe to stand on, this is my turn, if I can kill the Angelius with 2 fully loaded Stormclads, I can feat and score 2 points. I proceed to do so, I TK it backward so that neither of my Stormclads has to move (as to not trigger admonition). It again goes off on my first attempt, and then I move to the flag and feat. I catch almost everything so I feel confident that I can win this game now. I move Thorn to my right side as to have more hitting power in case he sends something to contest. This is a mistake, he should have been higher on the field so that nothing could come to contest. I run the remaining Firefly to the flag and score 2 points.

It has been 5 turns until my feat came up, but I'm 2-0, can he come back?

My opponent moves the Angelius towards his flag and moves his Neraph towards my flag as to contest. My opponent finally feats.

End of the turn 5, I just killed the other Angelius and gave up on my right side. 

Turn 6:
I'm really low on time and my opponent feated, so there is no reason for me to make one attack. I have the firefly try to swing at the Sheeperd and my opponent chooses to move the Angelius as to be farther from both my Stormclads. I TK the Neraph more than 4" away from the flag and move the Thorn on the other side of the flag as to protect Haley and put some hurt onto the Neraph, mat 7 on the back boosting, I get some damage. I pass turn and I'm at 7 min or so.

I am at 3-0, and less than 10 min on the clock.

My opponent uses that Angelius to kill the Firefly, and walks the Neraph closer to my flag and puts some damage into Thorn, taking the movement and arcnode out.

Turn 7:
I am really low on clock, so I have to kill things as fast as I can, I wanted to charge the Angelius with the sidekick Stormclad, but at this point is too far from Jakes and doesn't get focus, I should have run the Arcane Shielded Stormclad to engage the Naga, but I don't see it. I have tunnel vision and I have Haley TK the Neraph around and start beating it with Echo, she kills it.

I am at 4-0, and less than 2 min on the clock.

My opponent has 2 minutes left, so he runs the Naga to my flag. The Naga has been damaged over the game with some lucky leaps from the Firefly.

Turn 8:
I have time for one activation, maybe two, I activate Haley, TK the naga around, and start putting spears into it, there are 5 seconds left on the clock and I roll damage, the exact amount left on the Naga. The clock goes off but I'm already at 5 points!

Victory for the Cygnar!

4. Post-game:

I need to play this matchup again, is really scary, I also need to go faster on the previous turns, I loose 2-4 min per turn just finding my tokens and asking stats to my opponent. Otherwise, the matchup is not that bad, the fact that the sidekick makes on jack immune to gallows is great so that we can try to snipe important models and stay behind the sidekick model: just imagine thorn walking behind a huge jack and poking his head to see what's up front.